Economic inactivity caused by long-term sickness could increase by 140,000

Independent pensions consultancy Broadstone analysed government data and found that the number of people dropping out of the workplace for this reason rose by 5% in the 12 months to October 2022 – the latest data available.

The findings mean that the total number of economically inactive with long-term sicknesses could rise by 140,000 and reach 2.6 million people if that rate continues until December 2023. 

The research highlighted that even an optimistic forecast based on a halving of the growth rate would see around 70,000 more people exit the workplace.

With these increases underpinned by a creaking public health service, Broadstone applied a similar methodology to NHS waiting lists which uncovered the current list of 7.19 million (as of November 2022) could grow by a further 1.2 million and reach 8.4 million by the end of 2023 if the 18% annual growth rate is sustained.

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The Office for National Statistics reported that around 2.5 million people cited long-term sickness as the main reason for economic inactivity, an increase of around half a million since the pandemic began in 2019.

Brett Hill, Head of Health & Protection at Broadstone, said: “The NHS crisis looks set to be the story of 2023. Emergency treatment is incredibly strained, waiting lists have soared past 7 million and access to GPs is diminishing.

“The strain in the NHS and its knock-on impact on employment indicates precisely why it is so pivotal that businesses proactively take steps to help their employees. 

“Private healthcare and dental options for staff will be increasingly important as it becomes harder to access treatment. Without investing in these benefits, businesses face a growing retention problem as staff exit the workforce because of un-treated illnesses and injuries.”

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Last week, reports suggested that ministers are drawing up plans to allow people to keep claiming disability benefits when they go back to work to decrease the number of economically inactive people in the UK.

According to a report in The Times, a health and disability white paper due before the Budget will recommend “reforming or scrapping” work capability assessments used to assess eligibility for benefits.